Calculated Risk

Expand your thinking, diminish your problems. Increase your love, decrease your fear. Laugh more, and you’ll cry less. —Marianne Williamson

My good friend Steve, who is the CFO of a Fortune 500 company, once said to me, “Priya, whenever I have done something worthwhile, I have always been a little bit afraid before getting started on it.”

I think that we’ve all experienced that fear when we’re on the brink of something big. It is scary contemplating change! But that fear can turn into excitement when we trust ourselves enough to acknowledge the emotion and choose to embark on the new journey anyway.

Fear is instinctive, and we don’t need to let it hold us back.

I have often been scared of starting something new – even of starting this substack – but I have learned how to accept the feeling and dare to do it anyway. I am not suggesting that everything is always going to be easy and painless once you’ve embarked on the process of giving yourself permission to take risks, but feeling fear in the face of the unknown is a normal and healthy reaction. It is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. Fear is instinctive, and we don’t need to let it hold us back. We can respect it, understand its role in keeping us safe, and proceed in new ways of thinking and doing what will help us bypass unrealistic fear and live anew.

**The Risk Equation **

Sometimes taking a calculated risk and failing is a good thing! . . . because it increases our chances of real success the next time around.

**Risk + Action = Success **

If we take a risk, then take action, we just might succeed.

However, if we experience failure then we gain experience. So, the next time . . .

**Risk + Action + Experience = Increased Chance of Success **

First we have to calculate the risk. What would happen if you took the risk and failed? Would you be in the same place as you were before taking the risk or somewhere worse? By asking yourself these questions, you’re changing a situation from one of complete uncertainty to one in which you may just want to take a calculated risk. For instance, if you need to make a sales call or ask someone for something and you’re worried about it, ask yourself, where would you end up if you never talk to them? Then ask yourself, where would you be if your efforts or requests were rejected? Most of the time, chances are pretty good that you’ll be in exactly the same place. In this situation, after asking and being denied, you’ll have gained some insight. You can assess why they said ‘no’, what might make them or others say ‘yes’ next time, and how you can improve your approach. Sometimes an experience like this can teach you that it may be more productive to ask someone else. However, you now have some understanding of the situation (experience). Not getting exactly what you wanted, and then learning from it, has allowed you to be one step closer to success the next time. It’s important to implement the knowledge you’ve gleaned from the experience.

Now, if you want to learn to swim and you don’t want to take lessons but want to just dive in at the deep end, this may be the time to assess the risk in a different way. What’s the worst that could happen? You could drown! Is that worth the risk of learning to swim this way? Failure here would not result in gaining experience because you would be dead, so there would be no way for you to implement the knowledge learned from the experience. Given that the risk of jumping in at the deep end with no lessons or floatation device might not be a good idea, what risk is worth taking to attain your goal? What would be a less dangerous risk? Maybe wading in at the shallow end whilst having a lesson with armbands might be a better idea at first? Realistically, what is the worst that can happen? You could flounder a little and your instructor might have to help you. What’s the best that can happen? With a little practice and repetition, you might just learn to swim like a fish! This may seem like a very basic example, but it illustrates the point of deciding whether a risk is worth taking because the payoff outweighs the unknown factors associated with the risk or whether the price is too high.

I would say that, most of the time, we only perceive risk, and that perception often comes from deep-rooted fears that are not founded in reality.

Bottom line: risks are often worth taking, because we never know what’s on the other side or what we just might be able to achieve.